Playing the long game: Exploring the relationship between Al-Shabab and civilians in areas beyond state control

RESEARCH PAPER

Mohamed Mubarak, Ashley Jackson

Al-Shabab’s relationship with civilians is crucial for its survival. This research paper, co-published with the Hiraal Institute and ODI, is based on extensive interviews with civilians living in areas of Al-Shabab influence and those close to the group. It explores how the group exploits civilian frustration with political exclusion and government neglect. In the areas it controls, it also provides public goods (such as security and justice) and allows civilians a degree of influence over how Al-Shabab governs.

At the same time, civilians, particularly clan elders, use whatever leverage they can to extract benefits from Al-Shabab. Their influence over Al-Shabab depends on many factors such as clan unity and the strategic or military value of a given community to Al-Shabab.

Despite recent losses in territory, Al-Shabab is strategically retreating and playing the long game, betting on the government's inability to maintain control over the long term. Al-Shabab's deep entrenchment in local politics and clan structures, underscores the need for a comprehensive political, governance, and reconciliation strategy to establish long-term stability.